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Demography

UN – Demographic Prognosis for 2050


The UN Department for economic and social problems published last February a new prognosis for the demographic situation for the period via 2050. The experts suppose that during 45 years the population would increase enormously and come to 9,1 billion people. According to their forecast, there will be many remarkable changes in most populated countries.
The scientists had predicted long before that in the competition of “billionaire countries” – China and India – the last will win. Now they are more categorical about it and say that India will come to “victory” by 2030.
For another countries the rate of a billion is a question of a distant future.
According to the scientists, the US will keep the third place in the list of most populated countries by 2050 with 396 million people. Pakistan will be at the forth place with its 305 million people.
It is easy to note, that the demographic explosions are planned only in the Third World countries. The scientists don’t anticipate significant changes in the developed countries – Austria, Belgium, Greece, Netherlands, Portugal, Finland, France, Switzerland.
There will be certain changes in the CIS states (millions of people): Azerbaidjan – 1,2 growth, Armenia - 0,5 decrease, Belarus - 2,7 growth, Georgia - 1,5 decrease, Kazakhstan - 1,8 decrease, Kirgizstan - 1,4 growth, Moldova - 0,9 decrease, Turkmenistan - 1,9 growth, Ukraine – 20 decrease, Russia – 32 decrease (Russia will go to the 17th place after Vietnam and Egypt.

According to the prognosis, the growth of the Earth population will be gained not only because of high natality, but also because the increasing lifetime. If today there are 86 million people older than 80 y.o. on the Earth, by 2050 there will be almost 400 million.

Expert opinion

Halter Marek

02.12.06

Halter Marek
Le College de France
Olivier Giscard d’Estaing

02.12.06

Olivier Giscard d’Estaing
COPAM, France
Mika Ohbayashi

02.12.06

Mika Ohbayashi
Institute for Sustainable Energy Poliñy
Bill Pace

02.12.06

Bill Pace
World Federalist Movement - Institute for Global Policy
Peter I. Hajnal

01.12.06

Peter I. Hajnal
Toronto University, G8 Research Group


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